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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sigma Olomouc.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Sigma Olomouc 2-4 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.39 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights