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Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights