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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Plzen and Teplice drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 31% | Teplice 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights