Plzen vs Teplice – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Plzen and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 8, as Plzen and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.75 xG and Teplice 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 58% | Draw 26% | Teplice 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights