Plzen 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plzen, 0 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 48% versus Bohemians 1905 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 53% | Bohemians 1905 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.085 / defence 0.858 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.157 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.318. Data: 53 Plzen games / 53 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 50% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.62 / Bohemians 1905 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.085 / def 0.858 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.157 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Plzen 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.08) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.59
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
6%
17.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Plzen and 1.31 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 58 games, going 41W 11D 6L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.28 PPG from 58 outings (20W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 24W 3D 2L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.47 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 60%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 41W 11D 6L in their last 58 games (2.31 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.59 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plzen or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 48%, Bohemians 1905 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Plzen and 59% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plzen's recent matches and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Plzen's matches and 59% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Plzen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Plzen 1-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.31 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 43% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, Bohemians 1905 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.