Pardubice 3-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pardubice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Pardubice's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Teplice's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pardubice, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–5 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 55% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 57% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.779 / defence 1.028 | Teplice attack 0.787 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.328. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Pardubice games / 53 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 53% | Draw 26% | Teplice 21%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 4.76. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 53% | Draw 26% | Teplice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Pardubice 1.82 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.779 / def 1.028 | Teplice attack 0.787 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 3 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 53% chance of winning, Teplice a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.78x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.79x) against Pardubice's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.81
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.90
1.07
Teplice xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 14D 30L from 58 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 32L across 58 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Pardubice against 0.93 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 11D 11L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 4W 5D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 14D 30L in their last 58 games (0.97 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 12D 32L in their last 58 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.04 PPG; Teplice away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pardubice) and 75% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games; Teplice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 57% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Pardubice's matches and 75% of Teplice's.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 3-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Teplice attack 0.79 / defence 1.47, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 53% | Draw 26% | Teplice 21%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 57%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.97 PPG, Teplice 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.