Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.40 PPG, Plzen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Plzen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Plzen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.041 / defence 0.922 | Plzen attack 1.095 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.327. Data: 54 Mlada Boleslav games / 54 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 29% | Plzen 33%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Plzen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 29% | Plzen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.44 / Plzen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.041 / def 0.922 | Plzen attack 1.095 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Plzen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Record (2 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.04) and Plzen's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.44
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Plzen xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.34 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 12D 24L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 40W 11D 7L from 58 games, 2.26 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 16W 8D 4L from 28 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.83 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 12D 24L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Plzen have gone 40W 11D 7L in their last 58 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.46 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Plzen in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 57%, Plzen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Mlada Boleslav) and 39% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 46% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 39% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Plzen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mlada Boleslav's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 25, as Mlada Boleslav and Plzen drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 29% | Plzen 33%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.