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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights