Pardubice 3-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zlin travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Pardubice have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Pardubice have won 2, Zlin 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Pardubice 2–2 Zlin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 66% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 48% | Zlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.62 xG and Zlin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.869 / defence 1.048 | Zlin attack 0.777 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Zlin's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pardubice's projected output up. Zlin's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Pardubice's last 59 games and Zlin's last 29.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 51% | Draw 28% | Zlin 21%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.96 | Draw 3.54 | Zlin 4.84. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 60% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 51% | Draw 28% | Zlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Pardubice 1.62 / Zlin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.869 / def 1.048 | Zlin attack 0.777 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 3 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 51% chance of winning, Zlin a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 59 games and Zlin's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.54
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.58
0.96
Zlin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.96 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 8D 11L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.31 PPG, Zlin on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 4W 5D 5L across their last 14 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 14 away games (4W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
Pardubice (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.21 PPG; Zlin away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2026, when Pardubice won Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 4, Zlin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 71%, Zlin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pardubice) and 43% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 36%; Zlin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pardubice's games and 43% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pardubice and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pardubice's recent games and 43% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Pardubice's recent matches and 71% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Zlin 3-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.62 xG and Zlin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Zlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.33, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 51% | Draw 28% | Zlin 21%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 48%, Zlin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.31 PPG, Zlin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.