Pardubice 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pardubice against 1.30 for Slovan Liberec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pardubice, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2022, ended 1–4 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 53% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 59% | Slovan Liberec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.10 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.800 / defence 1.087 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.988 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.315. Data: 32 Pardubice games / 32 Slovan Liberec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 44%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Pardubice 40% | Slovan Liberec 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.10 / Slovan Liberec 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.800 / def 1.087 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.988 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Slovan Liberec xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Pardubice 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.99x) against Pardubice's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.77
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.52
1.41
Slovan Liberec xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.94
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.41 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 9W 8D 17L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 15L across 34 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Pardubice against 1.26 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 3W 7D 6L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.06 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Pardubice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slovan Liberec have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 0-4 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 38%, Slovan Liberec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pardubice) and 44% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games; Slovan Liberec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pardubice's recent games and 44% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.10 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.41 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 44%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 59%, Slovan Liberec 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.03 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.