Slavia Praha 7-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Slavia Praha, 1.90 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Slavia Praha 1W, Pardubice 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 45% versus Pardubice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 55% | Pardubice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.40 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.287 / defence 0.821 | Pardubice attack 0.945 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.387. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Slavia Praha games / 33 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 18% | Pardubice 15%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Pardubice 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Slavia Praha 30% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 18% | Pardubice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Slavia Praha 2.40 / Pardubice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.287 / def 0.821 | Pardubice attack 0.945 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pardubice xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Slavia Praha 7 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 67% chance of winning, Pardubice a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Slavia Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Slavia Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.29) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.94x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.57
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.48
1.08
Pardubice xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
1%
72.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.08 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 26W 6D 6L from 38 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 18L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 16W 1D 2L from 19 games — 2.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 6W 1D 12L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.18 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 26W 6D 6L in their last 38 games (2.21 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.58 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Pardubice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Pardubice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 32%, Pardubice 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Slavia Praha and 74% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 68% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Slavia Praha's matches and 74% of Pardubice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 7-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.40 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Pardubice attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 18% | Pardubice 15%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Pardubice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.42 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.