Baník Ostrava 3-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Zlin meet at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baník Ostrava's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zlin in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baník Ostrava lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 68% and Zlin 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 65% | Zlin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.853 / defence 1.177 | Zlin attack 0.904 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.330. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Baník Ostrava games / 32 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 24% | Zlin 34%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Zlin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 60% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 24% | Zlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.58 / Zlin 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.853 / def 1.177 | Zlin attack 0.904 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Zlin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 41% chance of winning, Zlin a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 0W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Zlin (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.90x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.13
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.00
1.42
Zlin xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.42 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 11D 11L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (9W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (2W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Zlin in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 11D 11L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Zlin away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.67 PPG; Zlin away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Zlin?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Baník Ostrava, 61% for Zlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Baník Ostrava) and 50% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Baník Ostrava's games and 61% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 50% of Zlin's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Zlin tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zlin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 3-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.42 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 24% | Zlin 34%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 65%, Zlin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.