České Budějovice 0-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43%, yet in-form Sparta Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Sparta Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 2D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.89 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.89 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sparta Praha in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — České Budějovice 63% and Sparta Praha 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.140 / defence 1.129 | Sparta Praha attack 1.101 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.274. Sparta Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 České Budějovice games / 19 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Praha (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Sparta Praha 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG České Budějovice 1.80 / Sparta Praha 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.140 / def 1.129 | Sparta Praha attack 1.101 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sparta Praha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
České Budějovice 0 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 43% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both České Budějovice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.10x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.43
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.38
1.58
Sparta Praha xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.58 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 4D 8L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 14W 3D 2L from 19 games, 2.37 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 14W 3D 2L in their last 19 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sparta Praha away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.11 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.89 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for České Budějovice, 67% for Sparta Praha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for České Budějovice and 78% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of České Budějovice's games and 67% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of České Budějovice's matches and 78% of Sparta Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at České Budějovice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 20, as České Budějovice and Sparta Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.58 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 43% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 34%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.