Pardubice 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pardubice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.30 PPG versus Zlin's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 0, Zlin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–4 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 58% versus Zlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 64% | Zlin 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.40 xG and Zlin 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.872 / defence 1.319 | Zlin attack 0.724 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.086. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Pardubice games / 30 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 28% | Zlin 28%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Zlin 3.57. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 28% | Zlin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Pardubice 1.40 / Zlin 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.872 / def 1.319 | Zlin attack 0.724 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Zlin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 45% chance of winning, Zlin a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.64
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Zlin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.04 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 9D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (9W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.00 PPG, Zlin on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 3W 8D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 7D 17L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.06 PPG; Zlin away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pardubice) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games; Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Zlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Zlin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.40 xG and Zlin 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Zlin attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 45% | Draw 28% | Zlin 28%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 64%, Zlin 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.00 PPG, Zlin 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.