České Budějovice 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slavia Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Slavia Praha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–6 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (53 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (53 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 57% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.96 xG and Slavia Praha 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.778 / defence 1.039 | Slavia Praha attack 1.110 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.417. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 České Budějovice games / 51 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 20% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 51%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Slavia Praha 1.96. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 30% | Slavia Praha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 20% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG České Budějovice 0.96 / Slavia Praha 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.778 / def 1.039 | Slavia Praha attack 1.110 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Slavia Praha xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
České Budějovice 1 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 20% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both České Budějovice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Record (3 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.78x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.11x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
20%
4.93
29%
3.49
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.60
1.63
Slavia Praha xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
25.27
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.63 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 13D 25L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 37W 8D 8L from 53 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.58 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 37W 8D 8L in their last 53 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.46 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.67 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-1 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Slavia Praha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (České Budějovice) and 54% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of České Budějovice's matches and 54% of Slavia Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.96 xG and Slavia Praha 1.63 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 20% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 51%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a České Budějovice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 57%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with České Budějovice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.