Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mlada Boleslav face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lokotrans Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Mlada Boleslav: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 54% versus Zlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 59% | Zlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.30 xG and Zlin 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.226 / defence 0.646 | Zlin attack 0.949 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.646 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Mlada Boleslav games / 41 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 73% | Draw 17% | Zlin 10%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Zlin 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Zlin 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 73% | Draw 17% | Zlin 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 46% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.30 / Zlin 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.226 / def 0.646 | Zlin attack 0.949 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Zlin xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 73% chance of winning, Zlin a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 3 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.23) and Zlin's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.78
10%
10.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.01
0.71
Zlin xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.78
17%
Draw
10.27
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
1%
102.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.71 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 15D 16L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 11W 9D 26L from 46 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.30 PPG, Zlin on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 5D 13L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.11 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 9D 26L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.50 PPG; Zlin away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zlin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 54%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mlada Boleslav) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zlin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Zlin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.