Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Dolicek. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Plzen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Plzen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 1.70 PPG, Plzen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Bohemians 1905.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (36 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Plzen trading profile (36 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Plzen 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.48 xG and Plzen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / defence 0.823 | Plzen attack 1.365 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Plzen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 36% | Draw 24% | Plzen 40%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 40% | Plzen 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 36% | Draw 24% | Plzen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.48 / Plzen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / def 0.823 | Plzen attack 1.365 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Plzen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Plzen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 36% chance of winning, Plzen a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 7W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.15
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.55
Plzen xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.55 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 8D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (18W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.78 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Plzen have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plzen in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 38%, Plzen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians 1905) and 62% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Plzen in 44%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 44% of games; Plzen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 38% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 62% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Plzen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.