Dukla Praha 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 0D 3L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 0.80 PPG versus Mlada Boleslav's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Dukla Praha trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 50% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.36 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.907 / defence 1.260 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.047 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.257. Data: 12 Dukla Praha games / 42 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 29% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 42%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 50% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 29% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Dukla Praha 1.36 / Mlada Boleslav 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.907 / def 1.260 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.047 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Mlada Boleslav xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Dukla Praha 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 29% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.91) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.54
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
3.02
1.66
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.66 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 3W 2D 7L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 4L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dukla Praha have managed 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Dukla Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.50 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 6 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dukla Praha at 50%, Mlada Boleslav at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dukla Praha and 67% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dukla Praha's games and 83% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dukla Praha's matches and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Dukla Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Dukla Praha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.36 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.66 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 29% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 42%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 50%, Mlada Boleslav 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.