Teplice 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.20 PPG for Teplice against 0.60 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 57% and Pardubice 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Pardubice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.22 xG and Pardubice 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.666 / defence 1.179 | Pardubice attack 0.767 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.286. Teplice's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Teplice games / 14 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 50% | Pardubice 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Teplice 1.22 / Pardubice 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.666 / def 1.179 | Pardubice attack 0.767 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pardubice xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 1 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Pardubice a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.67x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.77x) against Teplice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.60
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
Pardubice xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Teplice and 1.16 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 2D 11L for 0.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.57 PPG from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.36 PPG for Teplice against 0.57 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.14 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 2D 11L in their last 14 games (0.36 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.67 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Teplice, 83% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 67% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Teplice's games and 83% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Teplice's matches and 67% of Pardubice's.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.22 xG and Pardubice 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.67 / defence 1.18 against Pardubice attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 35%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Pardubice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.36 PPG, Pardubice 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.