Karviná 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pardubice (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Karviná face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Pardubice meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga (Semi-finals). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Karviná's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Karviná at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pardubice's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pardubice are 1.20 PPG clear of Karviná over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Pardubice, who have 6 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2026, ended Karviná 1–2 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 66% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.12 xG and Pardubice 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.906 / defence 1.300 | Pardubice attack 1.058 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Karviná's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pardubice's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 60 games and Pardubice's last 60.
Result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 49%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.04 | Draw 3.79 | Pardubice 2.05. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 60% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Semi-finals | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Karviná 1.12 / Pardubice 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.906 / def 1.300 | Pardubice attack 1.058 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Pardubice kick off?
Karviná vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Karviná 1 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Karviná vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Pardubice part of?
Karviná vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (Semi-finals) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 25% chance of winning, Pardubice a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Karviná and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.91) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.06x) against Karviná's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 60 games and Pardubice's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
25%
4.04
26%
3.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.77
1.65
Pardubice xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.03
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Karviná and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Karviná and 1.65 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 11D 28L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.06 PPG from 62 outings (17W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Karviná against 1.06 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karviná's home form reads 11W 6D 14L across their last 31 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 31 away games (6W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
Karviná (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Karviná vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 23W 11D 28L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 17W 15D 30L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Pardubice away?
Karviná's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.26 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Karviná and Pardubice, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won Pardubice 4-0 Karviná on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 3, Pardubice have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 55%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Karviná) and 45% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 32% of games; Pardubice in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Karviná's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Karviná's recent games and 45% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Karviná's recent matches and 58% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.12 xG and Pardubice 1.65 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Pardubice attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 25% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 49%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.29 PPG, Pardubice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.