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Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights