FK Jablonec 1-3 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as FK Jablonec take on Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Strelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Zlin — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 0 for Zlin and 7 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Zlin trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 38% versus Zlin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FK Jablonec 15% | Zlin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.07 xG and Zlin 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.076 / defence 0.770 | Zlin attack 0.830 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.149. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 13 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 40% | Zlin 21%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.56 | Draw 2.50 | Zlin 4.76. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Zlin 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 40% | Zlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG FK Jablonec 1.07 / Zlin 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.076 / def 0.770 | Zlin attack 0.830 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Zlin xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 1 - 3 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 39% chance of winning, Zlin a 21% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 7 | Zlin 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
39%
2.55
40%
2.51
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
1.81
0.73
Zlin xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.73 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 4D 1L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 62%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 games (2.15 PPG), while Zlin have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Zlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Zlin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for FK Jablonec and 33% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zlin in 50%; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 33% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 33% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat FK Jablonec 1-3 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.07 xG and Zlin 0.73 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 0.77 against Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 40% | Zlin 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 15%, Zlin 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.