Bohemians 1905 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Dolicek. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dolicek — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 45% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 45% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG and Hradec Králové 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / defence 0.938 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.222. Data: 43 Bohemians 1905 games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 29% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Hradec Králové 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 29% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.13 / Hradec Králové 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / def 0.938 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Hradec Králové xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
29%
3.51
35%
2.86
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.43
1.30
Hradec Králové xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.30 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 14W 14D 19L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 18W 12D 17L from 47 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.19 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.23 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.21 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Hradec Králové 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 54% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games; Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 42% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 54% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG and Hradec Králové 1.30 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 29% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 37%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 45%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.19 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.