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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pardubice take on Dukla Praha.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Pardubice welcome Dukla Praha to Stadion Arnosta Kostala. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Pardubice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Arnosta Kostala than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.10 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Dukla Praha have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Pardubice.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Dukla Praha winning.

It is worth noting that Dukla Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Pardubice in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | Dukla Praha 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.16 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.966 / defence 1.159 | Dukla Praha attack 0.737 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.149. Data: 43 Pardubice games / 43 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 36% | Draw 38% | Dukla Praha 27%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Dukla Praha 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 70% | Dukla Praha 40%.

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