FK Jablonec 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Praha (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Sparta Praha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 35% | Sparta Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.01 xG and Sparta Praha 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.877 / defence 1.135 | Sparta Praha attack 1.194 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.405. Data: 35 FK Jablonec games / 35 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 58%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Praha 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Sparta Praha 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG FK Jablonec 1.01 / Sparta Praha 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.877 / def 1.135 | Sparta Praha attack 1.194 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Sparta Praha xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 19% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.19x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
19%
5.17
23%
4.40
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.91
1.90
Sparta Praha xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
34.69
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.90 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 19D 15L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 25W 8D 7L from 40 games, 2.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (3W 9D 7L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.02 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 19D 15L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 25W 8D 7L in their last 40 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 0.95 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.79 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 53%, Sparta Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (FK Jablonec) and 63% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 32%; FK Jablonec have failed to score in 32% of games; Sparta Praha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 47% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 63% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 6, as FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.01 xG and Sparta Praha 1.90 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 58%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 35%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.