FK Jablonec 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.00 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 51% and Baník Ostrava 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 36% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.52 xG and Baník Ostrava 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.864 / defence 1.263 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.156 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.379. Data: 34 FK Jablonec games / 34 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 29% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 49%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Baník Ostrava 2.04. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 29% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG FK Jablonec 1.52 / Baník Ostrava 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.864 / def 1.263 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.156 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Baník Ostrava xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 29% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.86) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
29%
3.41
22%
4.64
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.54
2.01
Baník Ostrava xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
4%
25.55
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 2.01 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 6W 18D 15L from 39 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 12L across 39 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 3W 9D 7L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.72 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 18D 15L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 0.95 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 53%, Baník Ostrava 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (FK Jablonec) and 63% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FK Jablonec's games and 63% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 63% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 5, as FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.52 xG and Baník Ostrava 2.01 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 29% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 49%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 36%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.