FK Jablonec 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice.
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 54% versus Sparta Praha 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 38% | Sparta Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.15 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.918 / defence 0.818 | Sparta Praha attack 1.532 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.040. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 FK Jablonec games / 34 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 40%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Sparta Praha 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FK Jablonec 1.15 / Sparta Praha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.918 / def 0.818 | Sparta Praha attack 1.532 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 33% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 3W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.53x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.68
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.30 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 11W 15D 13L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 31W 6D 2L from 39 games, 2.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (8W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 15W 2D 2L from 19 away games — 2.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.36 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 11W 15D 13L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 31W 6D 2L in their last 39 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.68 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.47 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Sparta Praha 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (FK Jablonec) and 68% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 63% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 68% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.15 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Sparta Praha attack 1.53 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 40%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 38%, Sparta Praha 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.