Slavia Praha 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Slavia Praha. A 1.60 PPG lead over Teplice (2.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Teplice — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 45% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 58% | Teplice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.14 xG and Teplice 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.367 / defence 0.776 | Teplice attack 0.899 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.016. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Slavia Praha games / 34 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 18% | Teplice 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Teplice 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 20% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 18% | Teplice 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 45% | xG Slavia Praha 2.14 / Teplice 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.367 / def 0.776 | Teplice attack 0.899 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Slavia Praha 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Teplice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 70% chance of winning, Teplice a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slavia Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Slavia Praha 3W | Draws 2 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.90x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.41
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.85
0.71
Teplice xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
1%
77.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.71 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 28W 8D 2L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.63 PPG from 19 outings (16W 2D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 28W 8D 2L in their last 38 games (2.42 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Teplice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.63 PPG; Teplice away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Teplice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Teplice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Teplice 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 42%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Slavia Praha and 63% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Teplice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 58% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Slavia Praha's matches and 63% of Teplice's.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Teplice 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.14 xG and Teplice 0.71 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.37 / defence 0.78 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 18% | Teplice 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 58%, Teplice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.