Sigma Olomouc 3-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andrův stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 3D 5L at Andrův stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 2W, Mlada Boleslav 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 61% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Mlada Boleslav 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.013 / defence 1.081 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.938 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.051. Data: 34 Sigma Olomouc games / 34 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 3.85. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Mlada Boleslav 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.56 / Mlada Boleslav 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.013 / def 1.081 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.938 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.94x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.95
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.07 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 8D 16L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 7D 15L from 36 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.36 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.53 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 7D 15L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.47 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-4 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 59%, Mlada Boleslav 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sigma Olomouc) and 47% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 47% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 47% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Mlada Boleslav 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 3-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Mlada Boleslav 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.22 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.