Baník Ostrava 1-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava host FK Jablonec at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 2W 5D 3L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 1.20 PPG versus FK Jablonec's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FK Jablonec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 69% and FK Jablonec 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 66% | FK Jablonec 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and FK Jablonec 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.010 / defence 1.416 | FK Jablonec attack 0.702 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Baník Ostrava games / 29 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 3.70. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 80% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.52 / FK Jablonec 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.010 / def 1.416 | FK Jablonec attack 0.702 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FK Jablonec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec part of?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.81
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.63
1.11
FK Jablonec xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.11 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 13W 9D 7L from 29 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 4W 14D 11L across 29 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 1W 6D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.76 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 14D 11L in their last 29 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or FK Jablonec away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.64 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 79%, FK Jablonec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Baník Ostrava and 50% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Baník Ostrava's games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out FK Jablonec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat FK Jablonec 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and FK Jablonec 1.11 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.01 / defence 1.42 against FK Jablonec attack 0.70 / defence 1.33, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 66%, FK Jablonec 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.