FK Jablonec vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Pardubice.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FK Jablonec's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours FK Jablonec, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Pardubice 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Pardubice 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.54 xG and Pardubice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.085 / defence 0.860 | Pardubice attack 0.865 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.267. Data: 37 FK Jablonec games / 37 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 50% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FK Jablonec 70% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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