FK Jablonec vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Pardubice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pardubice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FK Jablonec, 1.40 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours FK Jablonec, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Pardubice 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Pardubice 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Pardubice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 1.257 | Pardubice attack 0.893 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 43 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 30% | Pardubice 38%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Pardubice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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