FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice – Match Report

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Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 5-0 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 5-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.79 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.50, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 43%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

České Budějovice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights