České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav – Match Report

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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-4 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 0-4 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.73 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.53 / defence 1.34 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 16% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 56%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights