České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.53) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.01x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
16%
6.34
29%
3.49
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.57
Mlada Boleslav xG
6.34
16%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
30.34
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.57 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.