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Stalemate at Dukla Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Zlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 29%, Zlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Zlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights