Dukla Praha 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dukla Praha face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Juliska plays host to Dukla Praha versus Slovácko in Czech Liga (Relegation Group - 2). Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dukla Praha have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Dukla Praha, 0.80 for Slovácko — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2026, ended Dukla Praha 2–1 Slovácko — a Dukla Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 69%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Slovácko 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 39% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.709 / defence 1.095 | Slovácko attack 0.886 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 60 games and Slovácko's last 60.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.89 | Draw 3.29 | Slovácko 2.85. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Dukla Praha 35% and Slovácko 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 30% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.15 / Slovácko 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.709 / def 1.095 | Slovácko attack 0.886 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Dukla Praha and Slovácko level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Slovácko xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slovácko kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Dukla Praha 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slovácko part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Group - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 35% chance of winning, Slovácko a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.89x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 60 games and Slovácko's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.29
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.32
1.17
Slovácko xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.17 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 11W 23D 32L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 14W 20D 32L from 66 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.94 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 31 home games (7W 10D 14L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 9D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 11W 23D 32L in their last 66 games (0.85 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 20D 32L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slovácko away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovácko?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 2, Slovácko have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Dukla Praha 0-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 52%, Slovácko 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 45% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 32% of games; Slovácko in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 45% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dukla Praha and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 45% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 74% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Dukla Praha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Group - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.85 PPG, Slovácko 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.