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Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Dukla Praha 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Group - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.85 PPG, Slovácko 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights