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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 2-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Zlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 37%, Zlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Zlin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG, Zlin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights