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Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Sparta Praha 2-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights