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Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.07 xG and Pardubice 1.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.69 / defence 1.12 against Pardubice attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG, Pardubice 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights