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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Final as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Hradec Králové 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Hradec Králové trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Hradec Králové 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.856 / defence 1.072 | Hradec Králové attack 1.129 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.

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