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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 2, Bohemians 1905 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Bohemians 1905 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | Bohemians 1905 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.865 / defence 0.931 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.862 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Hradec Králové games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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