🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Hradec Králové encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Karviná — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karviná at 1.70 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Karviná, 3 for Hradec Králové and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Karviná in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | Hradec Králové 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.044 / defence 1.171 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Karviná games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 33% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 42%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights