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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Dukla Praha 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights