Bohemians 1905 3-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 38%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bohemians 1905 have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 56% and Baník Ostrava 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 58% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.958 / defence 1.002 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.031 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.263. Data: 31 Bohemians 1905 games / 31 Baník Ostrava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Baník Ostrava 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.27 / Baník Ostrava 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.958 / def 1.002 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.031 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Baník Ostrava xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 36% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.96) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.77
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Baník Ostrava xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.30 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 9D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.17 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.47 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 53%, Baník Ostrava 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bohemians 1905) and 65% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bohemians 1905's games and 65% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 65% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 38%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 58%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.17 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.