Teplice 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.70 PPG lead over FK Jablonec (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FK Jablonec, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | FK Jablonec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.52 xG and FK Jablonec 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.207 / defence 1.272 | FK Jablonec attack 1.044 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.416. Data: 35 Teplice games / 33 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 46%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | FK Jablonec 2.17. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
FK Jablonec lead the H2H ledger, but Teplice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 50% | FK Jablonec 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Teplice 1.52 / FK Jablonec 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.207 / def 1.272 | FK Jablonec attack 1.044 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.88
FK Jablonec xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Teplice 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Teplice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Teplice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 6W.
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in?
Teplice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.04x) against Teplice's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 35/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.18
22%
4.49
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.40
1.88
FK Jablonec xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.86
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Teplice and 1.88 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec's form line: 19W 7D 12L from 38 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 9W 1D 9L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.21 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Teplice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Teplice 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 47%, FK Jablonec 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Teplice) and 37% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 42%; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; FK Jablonec in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Teplice's recent matches and 26% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Teplice's recent games and 37% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.52 xG and FK Jablonec 1.88 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.21 / defence 1.27 against FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 31% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 46%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 42%, FK Jablonec 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.