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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.48 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights