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Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights