Bohemians 1905 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 62% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 62% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.834 / defence 1.247 | Hradec Králové attack 0.717 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Data: 29 Bohemians 1905 games / 29 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Hradec Králové 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.98 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.834 / def 1.247 | Hradec Králové attack 0.717 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.97
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 6W 7D 16L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 9W 12D 8L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.28 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 9W 12D 8L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.29 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians 1905) and 43% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians 1905's games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 43% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 30, as Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Hradec Králové attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 35%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 62%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.